NBC-WSJ-Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
New Hampshire is traditionally a swing state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically won similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 24. A total of 768 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 54.7% for Clinton and 45.4% for Trump. In the latest NBC-WSJ-Marist poll on January 7 Clinton obtained only 50.6%, while Trump obtained 49.4%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New Hampshire sees Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.