NBC News published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
NBC News poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 17 to October 23 among 3225 participants. The error margin is +/-1.0 point, which means that the poll results for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. To compare: 55.4% was gained by Clinton in the NBC News poll on October 13, for Trump this result was only 44.6%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.5% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.9 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is negligible.