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Methods completely agree on the election outcome


In the latest update, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will garner 54.1% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 45.9% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Citizen forecasts predict a vote share of 54.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 59.4% of the vote.

A trend in the prediction markets and the index models in favor of Clinton has taken shape. The index models have seen this trend for the longest time so far, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points for Clinton's vote share in the last 10 days. Trump has however continuously become more popular in expert surveys and Citizen forecasts. Upward trend has persisted in expert surveys, he was able to win 2.5 percentage points during the past 25 days.

The aggregated polls forecast of 53.4% for the candidate of the Democratic party is notably high relative to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, aggregated polls predicted a vote share of 55.5% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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