On October 26, WBUR/MassINC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who answered the question, 57.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 16 with 502 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.4 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they often contain large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 64.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Massachusetts. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.9% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is insignificant.