Results of a new poll conducted by Goucher College were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Goucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of interviewees are going to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% are going to cast a ballot for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20, among a random sample of 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not be too confident the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.4%. In comparison to her numbers in the Goucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 66.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 3.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.