OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll on October 26. In this poll, respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30, among a random sample of 754 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland has Clinton at 69.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 66.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the combined PollyVote is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is insignificant.