Monmouth published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who replied, 45.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 21 and October 24. The sample size was 401 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-4.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 49.5% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Arizona has Trump at 49.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Monmouth poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.6 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.