Results of a new national poll administered by Ipsos/Reuters were announced. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ipsos/Reuters poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via Internet from October 20 to October 24, among a random sample of 1170 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-2.9 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may include large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 53.8% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. On October 17 Clinton obtained only 52.4% in the Ipsos/Reuters poll and Trump obtained 47.6%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.3%. Compared to numbers in the Ipsos/Reuters poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.