Crosstab model in Iowa: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 49.3% for Clinton, and 50.7% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on October 26 Trump was still predicted to obtain 51.0% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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