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Idaho: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 36.4% for Clinton, and 63.6% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on October 26 Trump was still predicted to garner 63.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 64.8% of the two-party vote in Idaho. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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