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Holbrook & DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Holbrook & DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 53.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 46.8%. In comparison, on October 24 Trump was predicted to collect 46.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.5%. This value is 2.7 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Holbrook & DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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