Hawaii: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 63.9% for Clinton, and 36.1% for Trump in Hawaii. In comparison, on October 26, Clinton was predicted to win 64.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 70.3% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 6.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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