Bay News 9/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Florida, the election outcome is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of interviewees intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 24. A total of 1251 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 51.6% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump. On June 27 Clinton received 52.3% in the Bay News 9/SurveyUSA poll and Trump received only 47.7%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Florida. Relative to her numbers in the Bay News 9/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Florida. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is insignificant.