Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Historically, Florida has been a purple state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts in this state are of particular interest.
Remington Research (R) poll results
The results show that businessman Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton have the same level of support, each with 46.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22 among 1646 likely voters. The error margin is +/-2.4 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 51.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Florida. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 1.8 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.4% and Trump 48.6% of the two-party vote in Florida. Clinton has 1.4 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Florida. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.