Results of a new poll carried out by Detroit News were spread. The poll asked respondents from Michigan for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Detroit News poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 11 among 600 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 58.8% for Clinton and 41.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Michigan sees Clinton at 55.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Detroit News poll Clinton's poll average is 2.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 4.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.