DeSart & Holbrook model in South Dakota: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 42.8% for Clinton, and 57.2% for Trump in South Dakota. In comparison, on October 24, Clinton was predicted to gain only 42.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.7% of the two-party vote in South Dakota. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in South Dakota.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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