DeSart & Holbrook model in South Dakota: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 42.8% for Clinton, and 57.2% for Trump in South Dakota. In comparison, on October 24, Clinton was predicted to gain only 42.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.7% of the two-party vote in South Dakota. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in South Dakota.