The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, whereas Trump will win 45.7%. In comparison, on October 26, Clinton was predicted to collect only 54.2% of the vote.
Historically, Virginia has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts in this state are of particular interest.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.