Kentucky: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead
The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 34.6% for Clinton, and 65.4% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on October 26, Clinton was predicted to gain only 34.3% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.