Crosstab model in California: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 62.8% for Clinton, and 37.2% for Trump in California. In comparison, on October 26 Trump was still predicted to win 37.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in California.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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