The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 62.8% for Clinton, and 37.2% for Trump in California. In comparison, on October 26 Trump was still predicted to win 37.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in California.