The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 39.4% for Clinton, and 60.6% for Trump in Arkansas. In comparison, on October 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 39.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 57.8% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.