Arizona: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.7% for Clinton, and 51.3% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on October 26, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 48.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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