Emerson published the results of a new poll on October 24. In this poll, respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 1000 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.0 points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. On April 11 Clinton obtained only 54.6% in the Emerson poll and Trump obtained 45.5%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.