Results of a new poll conducted by Remington Research (R) were circulated. The poll asked participants from Colorado for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Historically, Colorado has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular importance.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 20 to October 22 with 1581 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-2.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Colorado polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll Clinton's poll average is 2.9 percentage points higher. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.9% of the two-party vote in Colorado. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.8 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is significant.