On October 26, KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who replied, 56.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 13 to October 15, among a random sample of 725 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they often incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 62.0%. Relative to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 3.2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.