Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon published the results of a new poll on October 10. In this poll, interviewees from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
The results show that 44.0% of participants intend to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 12 to September 14 among 625 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't be overly confident the results of a single poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. In the latest Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll on January 20 Clinton received only 53.1%, while Trump received 46.9%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Minnesota sees Clinton at 52.4% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.6% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.9 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.