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Crosstab model in Ohio: Clinton is in the lead

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The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump in Ohio.

In Ohio, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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