Results of a new poll administered by Remington Research (R)Remington (R) were announced. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Remington Research (R)Remington (R) poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 20 and October 22. The sample size was 1764 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.3 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can incorporate large biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 48.4% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Trump at 48.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Remington Research (R)Remington (R) poll Trump's poll average is 2.9 percentage points worse. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.5% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.