On October 24, Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Siena poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 17 among 611 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.6 points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 62.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New York. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Siena poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.3% of the two-party vote in New York. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.0 point below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.