The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 56.3% of the two-party vote share in New Mexico, whereas Trump will win 43.7%. In comparison, on October 22 Trump was still predicted to gain 44.3% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New Mexico.