IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
IBD/TIPP poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from October 19 to October 24 among 873 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, you should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump. To compare: Only 50.0% was obtained by Clinton in the IBD/TIPP poll on October 23, for Trump this result was 50.0%.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.4%. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.4 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.