Remington Research (R)Remington (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Nevada is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically won similar levels of voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Remington Research (R)Remington (R) poll results
The results show that 44.0% of respondents will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 20 to October 22 with 1332 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can incorporate large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 48.4% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 47.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Nevada. This value is 3.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Remington Research (R)Remington (R) poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that Polly's prediction is 4.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.