Nevada: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 52.4% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will win 47.6%. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to win only 52.3% of the vote.

Historically, Nevada has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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