On October 10, Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22 with 625 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 54.7% for Clinton and 45.4% for Trump. On September 14 Clinton obtained only 53.7% in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll and Trump obtained 46.3%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Minnesota polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.7%. This value is 2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is insignificant.