Goucher CollegeGoucher College published the results of a new poll on October 24. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who responded, 58.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20, among a random sample of 514 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland has Clinton at 69.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 66.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is negligible.