Results of a new poll administered by Gravis were distributed. The poll asked participants from Indiana for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Gravis poll results
Of those who answered the question, 38.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 49.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 22 to October 24. A total of 596 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-2.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they can include large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 43.7% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Trump currently achieves 53.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Indiana. Compared to his numbers in the Gravis poll Trump's poll average is 3.3 percentage points worse. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 55.1% of the two-party vote in Indiana. That is, the PollyVote is 1.2 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.