KTNV/Rasmussen published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Nevada has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular value.
KTNV/Rasmussen poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 20 to October 22 with 826 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Nevada has Clinton at 52.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the KTNV/Rasmussen poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.