The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.8% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.2%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models can incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single index models, you should look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Results compared to other index models
Clinton currently achieves 53.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.5 percentage points higher.
The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.