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Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead


The Issue-index model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 55.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 44.8%. In comparison, on October 19, Clinton was predicted to achieve 55.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. In general, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual index model. Instead of relying on results from single index models, you should consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results vs. other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.1%. Relative to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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