The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 59.8% for Clinton, and 40.2% for Trump in Illinois. In comparison, on October 25, Clinton was predicted to collect 59.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 59.4% of the two-party vote in Illinois. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.