Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were announced. The poll asked respondents from Idaho for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 23.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 52.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 21 to October 23. A total of 1023 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 30.7% for Clinton and 69.3% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 63.6% of the two-party vote in Idaho. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 5.7 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is significant.