Results of a new poll carried out by Detroit Free Press were released. The poll asked participants from Michigan for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Detroit Free Press poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 1 and October 3. The sample size was 600 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.0 points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.9%. Relative to her numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Michigan. That is, Polly's prediction is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.