DeSart & Holbrook model in Virginia: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 56.0% for Clinton, and 44.0% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to gain only 54.1% of the vote.

Historically, Virginia has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, you should look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Virginia. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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