DeSart & Holbrook model in Utah: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 37.7% for Clinton, and 62.3% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 36.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models often incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 60.6% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah.