The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 55.2% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, whereas Trump will end up with 44.8%. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to gain only 54.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models often contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.