The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 52.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 47.7%. In comparison, on October 22 Trump was still predicted to obtain 48.8% of the vote.
In Ohio, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.