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DeSart & Holbrook model in North Dakota: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 39.3% for Clinton, and 60.7% for Trump in North Dakota. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to win only 39.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in North Dakota. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Dakota.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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