DeSart & Holbrook model in Michigan: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 56.6% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, whereas Trump will end up with 43.4%. In comparison, on October 22 Trump was still predicted to collect 44.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Michigan. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Michigan.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.