DeSart & Holbrook model in Maryland: Clinton is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 63.5% for Clinton, and 36.5% for Trump in Maryland. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 62.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.