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DeSart & Holbrook model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.8% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will win 49.2%. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to collect only 49.9% of the vote.

In Iowa, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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