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DeSart & Holbrook model in Idaho: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 34.3% of the two-party vote share in Idaho, whereas Trump will end up with 65.8%. In comparison, on October 25 Trump was still predicted to collect 65.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 63.5% of the two-party vote in Idaho. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 2.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Idaho.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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